8.17.2009

Insomniac FF Draft Breakdown

Can't sleep, so I figured I'd do a writeup with my thoughts on the SM08 and Friends draft from tonight.

1st Pick: Team Perley
1 Adrian Peterson, Min
28 Roddy White, Atl
29 Kurt Warner, Ari
56 Jason Witten, Dal
57 Willie Parker, Pit
84 Donald Driver, GB
85 Steelers D/ST, Pit
112 Domenik Hixon, NYG
113 Kevin Curtis, Phi
140 Patrick Crayton, Dal
141 Muhsin Muhammad, Car
168 Jeremy Maclin, Phi
169 JaMarcus Russell, Oak
196 Edgerrin James, Ari

Warner is good but a reach at 29; Colston and Grant were still on the board, and Warner probably wasn't going until 3 or 4 rounds later. Witten pick is solid. Extremely vulnerable at running back; getting Chester Taylor rather than Kevin Curtis in the 9th would have been very nice. Russell is unnecessary because of Warner/Leinart. Casey called me out for picking Derrick Mason because he retired at one point - I'm going to go ahead and point out that Edge is not on an NFL team.

2nd pick: WHO-DEY! (Brian B.)
2 Michael Turner, Atl
27 Kevin Smith, Det
30 Ronnie Brown, Mia
55 Braylon Edwards, Cle
58 Antonio Gates, SD
83 Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ
86 Carson Palmer, Cin
111 Josh Morgan, SF
114 Eli Manning, NYG
139 Dolphins D/ST, Mia
142 Jerious Norwood, Atl
167 Nate Washington, Ten
170 Bo Scaife, Ten
195 Dominic Rhodes, Buf

This isn't at all like the roster I would have picked given his spot, but it's well-rounded and doesn't have any glaring holes. Love the Norwood pick. Except maybe a better WR3, not a lot more to ask for.

3rd Pick: Team Agrait
3 Matt Forte, Chi
26 Anquan Boldin, Ari
31 Marques Colston, NO
54 Matt Ryan, Atl
59 Larry Johnson, KC
82 Owen Daniels, Hou
87 Laveranues Coles, Cin
110 Donnie Avery, StL
115 Kyle Orton, Den
138 Patriots D/ST, NE
143 Justin Fargas, Oak
166 Kevin Faulk, NE
171 Miles Austin, Dal
194 James Davis, Cle

Another team that's very thin at RB, a serious problem in a 14-team league because of the scarcity of valuable free agents. I remember Miguel being very sharp on the waiver wire in 2008 though, so there's hope. Ryan at 54 was a reach without much upside since the TB offense is so run heavy, and Schaub and McNabb were still on the board. LJ a decent value at 59. Solid WR picks.

4th pick: You Ain't Got No Defense (Brett A.)
4 Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac
25 Pierre Thomas, NO
32 Ryan Grant, GB
53 Chad Ochocinco, Cin
60 Eddie Royal, Den
81 Santonio Holmes, Pit
88 Donald Brown, Ind
109 John Carlson, Sea
116 Trent Edwards, Buf
137 Chaz Schilens, Oak
144 Bears D/ST, Chi
165 Shaun Hill, SF
172 Mark Clayton, Bal
193 Hakeem Nicks, NYG

Despite a dropped connection in the early rounds, an exceptionally solid team. The only real weakness is the lack of a WR1, though having 3 legit WR2s is pretty good too. If Brett's internet had held up, he probably would have picked Roddy White at 25. There's good value in the Grant, Holmes, Chicago, and Clayton picks. I'm going to quibble with the Brown pick since Sproles was around, a lock to see touches and just as much upside as Brown if not more. Still, easily one of the strongest teams to come out of the draft.

5th pick: Six 'Burgh (Lorrie K.)
5 Steven Jackson, StL
24 Reggie Wayne, Ind
33 T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Sea
52 Knowshon Moreno, Den
61 Chris Wells, Ari
80 Jay Cutler, Chi
89 Ted Ginn Jr., Mia
108 Ravens D/ST, Bal
117 Tim Hightower, Ari
136 Tony Scheffler, Den
145 Laurence Maroney, NE
164 Heath Miller, Pit
173 Earl Bennett, Chi
192 Brian Robiskie, Cle

Good team here from the dreaded 5 spot. Housh was a reach with T.O. and Bowe on the board. Moreno/Cutler/Bennett/Robiskie picks were all nice value. However I really have no idea what to make of Chris Wells' situation, not a good thing. Should be a solid playoff contender without needing significant WW/trade additions.

6th pick: Team Kayser
6 Chris Johnson, Ten
23 Greg Jennings, GB
34 Terrell Owens, Buf
51 Tony Romo, Dal
62 LenDale White, Ten
79 Chris Cooley, Was
90 Cedric Benson, Cin
107 Steve Breaston, Ari
118 Vikings D/ST, Min
135 Jets D/ST, NYJ
146 Jake Delhomme, Car
163 Michael Jenkins, Atl
174 Packers D/ST, GB
191 Brandon Jackson, GB

Looks exactly like an autodrafted team, which it was...this team is a trainwreck. The only bright spot here is TO/Jennings combo.

7th pick: Kiev Industrial Zone Factory #1 (Rafe)
7 LaDainian Tomlinson, SD
22 Peyton Manning, Ind
35 Marshawn Lynch*, Buf
50 Joseph Addai, Ind
63 Antonio Bryant*, TB
78 Kevin Walter, Hou
91 Michael Crabtree, SF
106 Le'Ron McClain, Bal
119 Percy Harvin, Min
134 Chris Chambers, SD
147 Correll Buckhalter, Den
162 Jeremy Shockey, NO
175 Michael Vick*, Phi
190 Buccaneers D/ST, TB

This team will be shaky, no doubt about it. Lynch, Addai, and Bryant are all extremely questionable this year. Lynch forgot how to run, Addai has Donald Brown to worry about as well as his injury-filled 2008, and Bryant is injured now. This team could turn out fine, but I'd be worried as hell every week with these guys. Percy Harvin I like a lot as a player, he's going to be very good in the pros. The Vick pick is interesting, though I predict he'll be seeing the (fantasy) waiver wire soon.

8th pick: Team Enriquez
8 DeAngelo Williams, Car
21 Steve Smith, Car
36 Thomas Jones, NYJ
49 Tony Gonzalez, Atl
64 Matt Schaub, Hou
77 Santana Moss, Was
92 Darren Sproles, SD
105 Torry Holt, Jac
120 Eagles D/ST, Phi
133 Ricky Williams, Mia
148 Kevin Boss, NYG
161 Sage Rosenfels, Min
176 Sidney Rice, Min
189 Brandon Pettigrew, Det

Autodrafted. Somehow this team turned out a lot better than Reilly's team. Still, I don't feel like commenting on it.

9th pick: Team Lantsman
9 Frank Gore, SF
20 Brian Westbrook, Phi
37 Dwayne Bowe, KC
48 Derrick Ward, TB
65 Dallas Clark, Ind
76 Matt Cassel, KC
93 Ben Roethlisberger, Pit
104 Fred Taylor, NE
121 David Garrard, Jac
132 Sammy Morris, NE
149 Panthers D/ST, Car
160 Nate Burleson, Sea
177 Ladell Betts, Was
188 Mark Bradley, KC

Another autodrafted team, though I think the predraft rankings were edited. Again not as bad as Reilly's team but the 3 QBs are terrible. Bleh.

10th pick: Cougar Bait (Max S.)
10 Tom Brady, NE
19 Marion Barber, Dal
38 Jonathan Stewart, Car
47 DeSean Jackson, Phi
66 Hines Ward, Pit
75 Devin Hester, Chi
94 LeSean McCoy, Phi
103 Kellen Winslow, TB
122 Willis McGahee, Bal
131 Matt Hasselbeck, Sea
150 Redskins D/ST, Was
159 Joey Galloway, NE
178 Mewelde Moore, Pit
187 Deion Branch, Sea

I don't personally like drafting a QB in the first round, but Brady definitely has the potential to be worth it. Barber before Westbrook is unorthodox too but also fine. Really don't like the Jonathan Stewart pick; Derrick Ward, Knowshon Moreno, and Joseph Addai were all available. The Hester pick is good, but LeSean McCoy as a flex is very optimistic. Aside from Brady, this team doesn't have much of a stable foundation - No. 12 is the definition of upside but does he have enough to make up for the holes here? If Stewart can't shake the injury bug and Brady doesn't go nuts, this team might be looking at missing the playoffs.

11th pick: Team Rawson
11 Larry Fitzgerald, Ari
18 Clinton Portis, Was
39 Darren McFadden, Oak
46 Aaron Rodgers, GB
67 Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG
74 Bernard Berrian, Min
95 Lance Moore, NO
102 Titans D/ST, Ten
123 Zach Miller, Oak
130 Bobby Engram, KC
151 Jason Campbell, Was
158 Michael Bush, Oak
179 Tashard Choice, Dal
186 Brent Celek, Phi

Fitzgerald, Rodgers, Bush, Choice were all nice picks. The rest are just okay. No glaring holes on this team but not a lot of upside either - this team really needs at least one of Bradshaw, Bush, or Choice to explode this season.

12th pick: Stanimal Milkshakes
12 Andre Johnson, Hou
17 Calvin Johnson, Det
40 Wes Welker, NE
45 Philip Rivers, SD
68 Ray Rice, Bal
73 Anthony Gonzalez, Ind
96 Greg Olsen, Chi
101 Fred Jackson, Buf
124 Rashard Mendenhall, Pit
129 Shonn Greene, NYJ
152 Chargers D/ST, SD
157 Joe Flacco, Bal
180 Greg Camarillo, Mia
185 Jerome Harrison, Cle

I'll give Stan two things: for a team with Ray Rice, an RB3 at best, as the "featured back," this is as good as it gets, and he had good late round picks, especially Mendenhall, San Diego, Flacco, and Camarillo. Incredibly stacked at wide receiver and incredibly thin at running back, he should seriously consider trading CJ or AJ if either of them get hot early. This would be a beast of a team in PPR but as it is, its positional imbalance has too much downside.

13th pick: Team Agawu
13 Drew Brees, NO
16 Brandon Jacobs, NYG
41 Brandon Marshall, Den
44 Roy E. Williams, Dal
69 Lee Evans, Buf
72 Jamal Lewis, Cle
97 Earnest Graham, TB
100 Giants D/ST, NYG
125 Chester Taylor, Min
128 Dustin Keller, NYJ
153 Justin Gage, Ten
156 Chad Pennington, Mia
181 Jamaal Charles, KC
184 Maurice Morris, Det

Another lover of QB studs here. I'd be fine with this strategy if Brady/Brees were significantly better than the next couple guys (Manning/Rodgers/Rivers) but they aren't. Despite all that, this is a very good team. Marshall and Williams have lots of question marks but they absolutely have the talent. The best picks here were Jacobs, New York, Keller, and Charles. Also, it's clear Atu knows his quality handcuffs very well.

14th pick: Philadelphia Animal Rescue (me)
14 Steve Slaton, Hou
15 Randy Moss, NE
42 Vincent Jackson, SD
43 Reggie Bush, NO
70 Donovan McNabb, Phi
71 Felix Jones, Dal
98 Derrick Mason, Bal
99 Julius Jones, Sea
126 Leon Washington, NYJ
127 Mike Walker, Jac
154 Cowboys D/ST, Dal
155 Visanthe Shiancoe, Min
182 Kerry Collins, Ten
183 Rashad Jennings, Jac

This team makes me apprehensive, but it has crazy upside. I would give it a 50% chance of solidly making the playoffs, a 25% chance of becoming a powerhouse, and a 25% chance of completely collapsing from injuries. Reggie Bush was a value at 43 but avoiding Moreno there was potentially a mistake. My reasoning was that Denver has a number of other backs who are also looking very good, McDaniels' work so far doesn't inspire confidence Moreno will be fully utilized, and Moreno's early injury is scary. I'm still on the fence here. I goofed and didn't even see Anthony Gonzalez was still around at 71 - nice pickup Stan. I instead reached for Felix Jones but luckily didn't get punished for it as Julius Jones was somehow still there 27 picks later. I like my later round picks though Walker was a "reach" in that I think he would have been around much later based on ADP, I could have picked up a better defense maybe(Jets, Bears). This was my first draft that I ever went into with a plan and I think I executed well, but not even close to flawlessly.

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