And this is my response: The excellent Sebastian Pruitti over at Nets are Scorching had this to say as an afterthought after the Vince Carter trade a couple of nights ago:
Our finances? Well, they no longer look too bleak…quoting Dave D’Alessandro:
Cap space for 2010-11 before the Vince trade — $9,724,569 (10 players). That was with a $46,775,431 payroll.
Cap space for 2010-11 after the Vince trade — $27,303,344 (9 players). And that’s with a 29,196,656 payroll.
The thing is, I don’t really think this is for LeBron. I mean if he wants to come to NJ (Brooklyn), I won’t turn him away, but with us drafting T-Will, I can see us going for Chris Bosh with all our extra cash.
My response: Why?!? Didn't we just establish without a doubt that Championships are won by the teams with the best players?!?!
Oh wait, I haven't shown it yet - I just said it.
Here's a list of all of the Finals teams who played a full season since the 98-99 lockout, with their best players in the next column:
All of the players who were highlighted in green were All-NBA First Team players that year, and all of the players who were highlighted in yellow were All-NBA Second Team players. This means, that of the best players of the 20 teams that made it to the Finals in the last decade, 14 were the top 2 players at their positions, 4 were the top 4 at their positions, and only 2 (Reggie Miller on a solid Pacers team playing in a dilapidated post-Jordan, pre-James/Wade/Howard Eastern Conference, and Ben Wallace on a throwback defensive team that valued team defense over individual stars) were neither.
What does this tell us?
1. Championships are won by the teams with the best players (DUH!) And of course, for every All-NBA First Team player that wins a championship, there are usually 4 All-NBA First Team players that don't win said championship, so clearly having the best player is a necessary but not sufficient condition. That being said,
2. NO TEAM with an All-NBA Third Team player as their best player has been in the Finals in the last 10 years. In fact, I did some further digging, and the only team from 1991 (the first Jordan Bulls championship) onwards with an All-NBA Third Team player as their best player to play in, and win a Finals, was the 1995 6th-seeded Houston Rockets, with Olajuwon and Drexler both as Third-teamers (although with a caveat that Olajuwon was a Third-Teamer behind David Robinson and Shaquille O'Neal while still being a top 5, top 10 player in the league, and also that the Rockets beat both the Spurs and the Magic that year en route to the championship) . However, several teams (2009 Lakers, 2008 Celtics, 1997 Bulls, 1994 Rockets for example) have won championships with an All-NBA Third Teamer as their second best player.
What does this mean?
This means that your best player can't just be a star if you realistically want to win the championship. He has to be one of the top 2-3 at his position in the league, unless you have a fluky team like the Pistons or play in a down conference year like the Pacers. This matters because with the 2010 free agent bonanza now just a year away, there's going to be pressure on GMs to open their pockets to bring in the star (or two) that would bring us to the Promised Land. But I hope this post goes to show that blowing our cap space on Chris Bosh and no one else is going to make our team good, a playoff team most likely, but hardly a championship contender. We have a good, young supporting-cast nucleus in search for a star - let's make sure we get the right one.
I don't think a team can be built around, among others, Chris Bosh, Carlos Boozer, Amare Stoudemire, Deron Williams, Joe Johnson, Chauncey Billups, Danny Granger, Al Jefferson, Pau Gasol, or Andre Iguodala, as your best player. I think these are all "second stars" like Scottie Pippen, who was a NBA All-time top-50 player in his own right, but needed a Michael Jordan to actually make it to the Finals.
I think the following have potential to carry their team to the Finals, but the windows for some of them are running out: Yao Ming (I'm looking at you in particular), Chris Paul, Carmelo Anthony, Kevin Durant, and Brandon Roy.
So Rod Thorn, when you're deciding to spend money next summer, please don't make like Otis Smith and blow 100 million on Chris Bosh in this economy. He's worth a lot, but that kind of money should go only to the championship-winning stars of the world.
stan you just wasted a minute of my life after I SKIMMED it...fuckin school
ReplyDeleteBasketball is probably the only major team sport in which a single superstar can carry an otherwise mediocre team. That said, the Nets writer sounds like he's predicating a Bosh trade on Terrence Williams being that future star - so hypothetically going for Bosh isn't technically wrong, just incredibly optimistic.
ReplyDeleteAlso, I think local/fan writers overemphasize the value of the current rosters' role players in general.
Depends on what you mean by "carry". Clearly Carmelo Anthony in the last 3-4 years has made an otherwise pathetic Nuggets team into a playoffs contender, but I'm willing to sacrifice a team that makes the playoffs year after year for a team that wins the championship in a narrower time window.
ReplyDeleteI don't think Sebastian sees T-Will as our #1 star. He just plays the same position as LBJ and we have a gaping hole at the 4 that's sorta filled by an asian guy that's not Yao. My sense (and if you're interested, read his thoughts in the comments) is that with Bosh, we'll have an excellent starting 5 that can compete without a true top 5 player (see Pistons, 2004). This post is my response to that particular strategy, because I think this "team victory", as beautiful as it sounds, does not happen often, if at all.
yea, just look at me and steve playing pong together. who would've thought we'd make such a great couple?!
ReplyDeleteOf course, since I won the championship, your "team" counts for naught. Better luck next year!!! (Of course, we can set up a doubles' championship, and then we can settle it once and for all)
ReplyDelete