8.30.2012

The BSS Report Season 4 Draft Analysis

Brett's Analysis

Lorrie (Uh huh UKnowWhatItIs)
QB Ben Roethlisberger 1
RB Chris Johnson 53
RB Frank Gore 30
WR Wes Welker 41
WR Greg Jennings 36
TE Kellen Winslow 1
FLEX Dwayne Bowe 19
D/ST Falcons D/ST 1
K Mike Nugent 1
BE Beanie Wells 6
BE Lance Moore 4
BE David Wilson 4
BE Alex Smith 1
BE Matt Cassel 1
BE Martellus Bennett 1
Total: 200
Remaining: 0

Team Name/Picture: Shoutout to the steel city with the Black and Yellow reference.
Note: Tall Kevin (Coughlin) drafted for Lorrie.


QB: Ben was a steal at a dollar. Possibly the best value in the whole draft.


RB: CJ2K is a great pickup and good value for a top RB. Gore, I fear, is over the hill and will not produce like someone who costs $30. Beanie Wells is struggling to hold off a more talented Ryan Williams in Arizona, so his value could be low if he loses a significant number of touches. David Wilson is an interesting pick, whom I like very much. He’s a dynamic back, who will be the future foundation back for the G-men, but it is unclear whether he can unseat Bradshaw this year.


WR: Welker is consistently undervalued in PPR leagues, yet is consistently excellent. Definitely a strong buy. Jennings is an elite talent whose only curse is that his QB is too good. Rodgers could throw for 4000 yards with a group of second graders, so he doesn’t need to rely on Jennings’ abilities to make plays. That being said, I think $36 is a good value for Jennings. Bowe’s stock has dropped with his holdout, but when he comes back, he should be a solid player. I also like Lance Moore, who could rack up some serious catches in New Orleans.


TE: I’m not a fan of either Winslow or Bennett, but at least both were cheap.


Miguel (Suprapubic Tap)
QB Drew Brees 59
RB Arian Foster 78
RB Felix Jones 2
WR Kevin Walter 1
WR Mario Manningham 2
TE Rob Gronkowski 47
FLEX Bernard Scott 2
D/ST Bills D/ST 1
K Neil Rackers 1
BE Patriots D/ST 1
BE Laurent Robinson 2
BE Matt Flynn 1
BE Davone Bess 1
BE Evan Royster 1
BE Bernard Pierce 1
Total: 200
Remaining: 0


Team Name/Picture: Medical term meaning a needle inserted directly into the bladder. No picture thankfully.


QB: Migs went for the gusto with buying up three elite players in Brees, Foster, and the Gronk. In spite of missing his coach and Robert Meachem, Brees should be excellent as always.


RB: Picking up Foster, the #1 RB available, was a bold move. Miguel got a fair but not great price, although it was significantly lower than the espn-suggested $97. Because his big three picks nearly bankrupted him, his other RBs are mostly hopes and wishes. Felix Jones has teased us with potential the last few years, so he could produce in a big way. However, it is difficult to rely on someone who is hurt so often.


WR: Migs spent $6 on receivers...total. You get what you pay for.


TE: The Gronk probably won’t be able to replicate his obscene stats from last year (especially the TDs), so Miguel likely overreached given his desperate situation at WR.

Casey (Team Perley)
QB Matthew Stafford 47
RB Steven Jackson 35
RB Jonathan Stewart 14
WR Roddy White 35
WR Victor Cruz 29
TE Tony Gonzalez 9
FLEX Vincent Jackson 13
D/ST 49ers D/ST 4
K Mason Crosby 2
BE David Nelson 1
BE Toby Gerhart 5
BE Darrius Heyward-Bey 3
BE Leonard Hankerson 1
BE Ryan Grant 1
BE Isaiah Pead 1
Total: 200
Remaining: 0

Team Name/Picture: Default. May I recommend “David Nelson Golden God?”


QB: Stafford was a very solid pick up at $47 and certainly the best value amongst the top 5 QBs.


RB: I’m terrified of relying on a RB with as much wear and tear as SJax. The Rams have ridden Jackson like a rented mule for too many years, so I see his YPC to continue to decline. I suspect that other backs (like Pead) will begin to eat into his carries, and this is assuming that he plays the majority of the season. Pead should be a decent handcuff, even though he is undersized. Stewart’s in a logjam of a timeshare with many other talented ball carriers, including DeAngelo Williams, Mike Tolbert, and Cam Newton. However, he could be a Williams injury from being a major factor.


WR: Rowdy Roddy White has been a PPR stud for a few years now, and in spite of the emergence of Julio Jones, White should have another productive campaign. Casey got him for a pretty good value at $35, too. I’m not a huge fan of Cruz, but his style suits PPR quite well. Casey paid the going rate for him, but I wouldn’t have pushed past $20. Darrius Heyward-Bey was a nice snag. Finally, Casey grabbed her major crush, David Nelson, for $1 (if you haven’t seen a picture of him, google him and you’ll understand). He also plays for the Bills, which is a negative to most managers, but Casey is cursed with being from Buffalo and consequently brain-washed into rooting for the local team.


TE: Gonzalez is still going strong, so he should be a solid option at TE.


Stan (Chad Johnson's Day Off)
QB Philip Rivers 21
RB LeSean McCoy 66
RB Matt Forte 51
WR Steve Johnson 16
WR Pierre Garcon 8
TE Jared Cook 4
FLEX Taiwan Jones 1
D/ST Lions D/ST 1
K John Kasay 1
BE Willis McGahee 18
BE Nate Washington 7
BE Jon Baldwin 1
BE Randall Cobb 3
BE Tim Hightower 1
BE Doug Baldwin 1
Total: 200
Remaining: 0


Team Name/Picture: Love the name---very appropriate given how many consecutive days off he will have now that the Dolphins cut him.


QB: Rivers had a disappointing 2011 relative to the high expectations for someone of his ability. There is a good chance that he will play to his talents and have a more productive 2012, but his weapons (Vincent Brown and Ryan Mathews) are dropping like flies. Rivers will finally have a healthy Gates, which will be useful.


RB: McCoy is the third back in the elite tier and is extremely valuable in PPR. He probably won’t hit the high TD totals that he did last year, but it shouldn’t matter since he is devastating at catching passes out of the backfield. Forte’s held out this preseason, and the Bears have also signed Michael Bush to share some of the load. I suspect that Forte’s numbers will drop for both of these reasons, so Stan may have overpaid for Forte. McGahee keeps on chugging and looks like the primary ball carrier in Denver despite qualifying for social security. Hightower is a good grab for a dollar considering that he could be the lead back in Washington (then again with the Shanahans, there’s a non-negligible chance that I could be the lead back by Week 10). In the most highly criticized pick of the draft, Stan took the handcuff to the handcuff in Oakland with Mr. TAAAAIIIIIIIIIWANNNNNN Jones!


WR: After investing heavily in McCoy and Forte, Stan was strapped for cash and it shows in his WR lineup. Stevie Johnson is underrated, but not a true #1. Same for Garcon (although he’s more like a WR3). Nate Washington has been flying under the radar and should produce. The Baldwin brothers (to the best of my knowledge are not related) also have strong upside. Stan is really hoping that one of his receivers blows up this year, otherwise he could be in trouble.


TE: Cook is dripping with talent but highly inconsistent.


Danny (Team Rosenthal)
QB Michael Vick 29
RB Michael Turner 22
RB Ahmad Bradshaw 27
WR Jordy Nelson 23
WR Demaryius Thomas 12
TE Aaron Hernandez 11
FLEX Jimmy Graham 49
D/ST Steelers D/ST 2
K Alex Henery 1
BE Isaac Redman 6
BE Titus Young 3
BE Pierre Thomas 2
BE Justin Blackmon 3
BE Josh Freeman 3
BE Mikel Leshoure 1
Total: 194
Remaining: 6


Team Name/Picture: Default. How about “Kiss from a Rosenthal?”


QB: After a disappointing season, Vick’s value dropped considerably this offseason. However, he has the potential to really light up the FF scoreboard, so $29 could turn out to be an excellent value. The issue with Vick is that he tends to get injured much more frequently than other top QBs. This preseason he’s been knocked out of two games due to injury. Neither injury was serious, but the current trend is unsustainable. Freeman is a good backup with a high ceiling at a low price due to a down year.


RB: Turner and Bradshaw are two backs that a few years past their prime, so I think that Danny overpaid. I see David Wilson (and injuries) as a real threat to Bradshaw’s carries. I never really trust Turner because his point totals depend strongly on TDs, which are highly variable. He doesn’t catch many passes, so he is much less valuable in a PPR format. Danny is hoping that Redman, Thomas, or Leshoure produce at a level much higher than expected due to greater opportunities if a back higher on the depth chart gets injured.


WR: Danny got great value on his starting WRs. Nelson for $23 and Demaryius Thomas for $12 represent very good values. I also like the chances of his upside WRs (Young and Blackmon) to break out.


TE: Danny went for the bold move of buying two top TEs in Graham and Hernandez. He paid a premium for Graham, but the value wasn’t awful...if Graham delivers. Hernandez was a good buy that could pay off big time if the Patriots try to get him even more involved.

Stan's analysis:


Steve (Lochte Nation)
Eagles D/ST D/ST $2
Vernon Davis, SF TE $13
Rob Bironas, Ten K $2
Darren McFadden, Oak RB $56
Julio Jones, Atl WR $41
Mike Goodson, Oak RB $6
Steve Smith, Car WR $28
Ryan Williams, Ari RB $5
Joe Flacco, Bal QB $3
DeAngelo Williams, Car RB $7
Eric Decker, Den WR $19
Brent Celek, Phi TE $2
Jay Cutler, Chi QB $7
Jacquizz Rodgers, Atl RB $3
Danny Amendola, StL WR $4

Team name: Steve tried something different this year, going with a water sport name rather than a football pun – will this anger the football gods? Or will the water sport gods grace him with a bump up the leaderboard this season? Only time will tell.

QB: Got the Flacco/Cutler combo for a very low price, when top-shelf QBs are going for 5 to 6 times that amount. I like Cutler better, particularly since Flacco has been winging it around with not that much to show for it the last couple of seasons. Will Cutler be able to stay upright this time around?

RB: It looks like Silver and Black or bust! Darren McFadden If He Stays Healthy (his full name) is a dynamic runner who catches passes out of the backfield as well. He can easily return a profit if he plays 14-16 games. That of course is a huge if and I wonder whether Steve got enough of a discount on the injury bug for that. Good luck picking a number 2 RB though on a week to week basis – the Williamses and Jacquizz could all potentially go off, but will Steve pick the right one each week? With good inseason management this could pay off but I foresee several heartbreak Sundays where the guy on the bench goes off.

WR: Jones, Smith, and Decker could make a law firm of their own, and make up the heart of this team. These are the guys to watch for come gametime. Considering that Julio showed flashes last season but lacked consistency, Steve is paying for a breakout season in year 2. Will it come? Color me skeptical. Smith and Decker are in my opinion better buys.

TE: Not much to say here. Will Alex Smith show up and use his security blanket like he did in the playoffs?

Reilly (Gronk Smash)
Calvin Johnson, Det WR $52
Chargers D/ST D/ST $2
David Akers, SF K $3
DeMarco Murray, Dal RB $43
Andrew Luck, Ind QB $3
Hakeem Nicks, NYG WR $31
Tony Romo, Dal QB $22
Roy Helu, Wsh RB $16
Stevan Ridley, NE RB $8
Ben Tate, Hou RB $8
Fred Davis, Wsh TE $5
Rashard Mendenhall, Pit RB $1
Michael Crabtree, SF WR $4
Sam Bradford, StL QB $1
Delone Carter, Ind RB $1

Team name: Gronk Smash was probably my favorite part of the last Avengers movie.

QB: 3 QBs? Potentially not much faith in Tony Romo there, who I think was a solid value buy. I expect to see Bradford dumped in the first three weeks, although Luck may surprise down the stretch

RB: DeMarco Murray and not much else in my opinion, although if Arian Foster gets injured, Ben Tate will be the best value of the draft. And maybe that's what Reilly is counting on. But if Murray gets injured again (remember, he hasn't played even a half season in the NFL), we're going to be in trouble. I worry about Roy Helu as well, given his price tag, since Shanahan will do everything in his power to make sure Helu only starts games that are prime numbers.

WR: Basically a 2 man game with Megatron, who I think was taken at a fair price, and Nicks, who I think may have been slightly overpriced north of $30, given how deep wide receiver is this year. I see Reilly needing to search for some wide receiver depth off the wire this year. And no, Crabtree doesn't count.

TE: I do like Fred Davis – Bob Griffin will definitely need a security blanket and I can see Davis finishing the year as a top 5 TE as a result, particularly given our PPR scoring.

Brian (Purple People Eaters)
Ravens D/ST D/ST $2
Andre Johnson, Hou WR $37
Adrian Peterson, Min RB $42
Peyton Manning, Den QB $10
Jermichael Finley, GB TE $16
Matt Schaub, Hou QB $16
Shonn Greene, NYJ RB $14
Darren Sproles, NO RB $38
Blair Walsh, Min K $1
Brandon Pettigrew, Det TE $7
Reggie Wayne, Ind WR $7
Rashad Jennings, Jac RB $5
Brandon LaFell, Car WR $2
Mike Williams, TB WR $2
Ronnie Brown, SD RB $1

Team Name: Really showing his true colors here, and bonus points for putting your money where your team name is and picking up the Minnesota kicker.

QB: Brian claimed that he got a future Hall of Famer for 10 bucks. Fair enough, but let's see him hit a 20 yard out after he gets hit before we crown him that. Schaub is a solid insurance policy, particularly if he can get a couple more of those dumpoffs to Arian Foster who then does the work and takes it to the house.

RB: Purple Jesus! Brian admitted he may have overpaid for Peterson given his injury, although if Peterson looks as good as they say, he may have managed to grab a nice little discount. Sproles is a very good RB2, and though I'm sorry your autodraft gobbled up Shonn Greene for you when you got disconnected, you'll live. Probably will be the happiest person here if MJD somehow gets traded or doesn't get paid. Also, ROOOONNNNNIIIIEEE BROWNNNNN! I miss the days when that was worth something.

WR: Yikes Andre for $37? A big question mark there. If Andre pulls his groin week 3 we're going to be hearing about the pain all through the bye weeks. Reggie Wayne for $7 is a very good value though – someone's gotta catch balls in Indy. Can't get too excited about the rest of the team – but if WR is as deep as they say, I'm sure there will be someone on the wire for you (but make sure you pick them up early enough and not Sunday at noon!)

TE: Finley and Pettigrew round off a solid TE corps, and given your lack of WR depth, may both be starting each week.

Kristen (Team Campbell)
Aaron Rodgers, GB QB $76
Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac RB $65
Mike Wallace, Pit WR $34
Sebastian Janikowski, Oak K $2
Dan Bailey, Dal K $2
Matt Prater, Den K $2
Jason Witten, Dal TE $11
James Starks, GB RB $1
Sidney Rice, Sea WR $1
Randy Moss, SF WR $1
Brandon Jacobs, SF RB $1
Michael Floyd, Ari WR $1
Dion Lewis, Phi RB $1
Kendall Hunter, SF RB $1
Cowboys D/ST D/ST $1

Team name: Default (sadface). We may have to rename your team to Three Kickers though.

QB: Rodgers is the best, of course, and it appears that your autodraft certainly paid for it.

RB: Will MJD show up? Even if he will, we're looking at a Chris Johnson circa 2011 situation here. MJD is less about shiftiness and more about bowling people over and hiding behind people much bigger than he is, both traits that you don't necessarily lose by holding out. Still, the price was very high for him and you're going to be fighting to fill in that other spot. If Gore (Frank, not Ian) gets injured, though, one of the SF lottery tickets may pay off.

WR: Mike Wallace might not even be the best WR on his own team. Sorry, I think the autodraft may have hurt you on this one. We'll need one of your athletic dollar wide receivers to show up this year.


TE: Witten will catch balls, but will his spleen stay in one piece? I don't know . . .   



Steve's analysis:

Brett
QB Cam Newton 58
RB Trent Richardson 30
RB Doug Martin 19
WR A.J. Green 38
WR Brandon Marshall 30
TE Jermaine Gresham 1
FLEX Peyton Hillis 11
D/ST Jets D/ST 1
K Robbie Gould 1
BE Carson Palmer 2
BE Greg Little 1
BE Kendall Wright 2
BE Montario Hardesty 1
BE Vincent Brown 2
BE Kyle Rudolph 1

Team Name: Eight Men One Box. An offensive defensive strategy.


Best Pick: Greg Little ($1). The Browns’ only legit WR for a penny? Yes please.

Worst Pick: Vincent Brown ($2). Vincent Brown had 19 catches in 2011, and currently has a broken leg.

Breakout Pick: Doug Martin ($19). Days after the draft Doug Martin officially beat LeGarrette Blount for the #1 spot, making Brett look like a genius.

Overall Grade: A-. Brett was clearly targeting a roster difficult-to-value players like Trent Richardson, Brandon Marshall, and Peyton Hillis anchored by a top 4 QB, and will have gotten good value for them if all or most pan out.

Possible Theme Song: Madonna, “Gang Bang”

Matt
QB Tom Brady 63
RB Reggie Bush 19
RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis 15
WR Brandon Lloyd 28
WR Percy Harvin 22
TE Owen Daniels 2
FLEX Kevin Smith 13
D/ST Bears D/ST 1
K Garrett Hartley 1
BE Jeremy Maclin 14
BE DeSean Jackson 9
BE Cedric Benson 4
BE Kenny Britt 5
BE Daniel Thomas 3
BE Rueben Randle 1

Team Name: Smokin' Blounts Drinkin' Fortes. Complete with Edward Forty Hands. If only he actually drafted either Blount or Forte.

Best Pick: Jeremy Maclin ($14). Even if Vick is healthy for only half the season, I think this pick will prove to be good value. I think most teams had spent ammunition on their #1/#2 wide receivers earlier on, so this pick was the result of patience.

Worst Pick: Brandon Lloyd ($28). I love Lloyd’s game, but there are a lot of mouths to feed on this team, and I don’t expect him to get as many downfield looks as he may deserve.

Breakout Pick: The Jeremy Maclin/DeSean Jackson combo package. Not only will Matt have a tough lineup decision from week to week, but now a Vick injury may knock out two of his receivers. Matt is taking a risky asset and doubling down, which befits his team picture well.

Overall Grade: B+. Matt took a similar approach to Brett, with similar results.

Possible Theme Song: Snoop Dogg & Wiz Khalifa, “Young, Wild and Free”

Ian
QB Eli Manning 19
RB Marshawn Lynch 38
RB Fred Jackson 35
WR Miles Austin 19
WR Marques Colston 23
TE Antonio Gates 18
FLEX Jamaal Charles 36
D/ST Texans D/ST 2
K Stephen Gostkowski 1
BE Malcom Floyd 3
BE LeGarrette Blount 2
BE Nate Burleson 1
BE Santana Moss 1
BE Tim Tebow 1
BE James Jones 1

Best Pick: Fred Jackson ($35). Ironically, for a draft that didn’t spend more than $38 on any one play, Jackson is where I think Ian got the most value. He’s 31 years old but doesn’t have that much mileage on his legs, and before he got injured in 2011 was a top 5 RB.

Worst Pick: Marshawn Lynch ($38). Tough to predict because he'll get a lot of carries for sure but Beast Mode has been a 2 steps forward, 1 step backwards kind of guy nearly his whole career.
Breakout Pick: Malcom Floyd ($3). Every year I expect this guy to break out and he either gets injured or just doesn’t show up. Now that Jackson is gone, this is Floyd’s chance to prove that he’s more than just a tall guy for Rivers to throw at.

Overall Grade: B. Ian’s refusal to pay up for any premium-priced players has left him with a number of lower-rated guys which seems like a risky strategy. If I were Ian I would be worried about week-to-week consistency.

Possible Theme Song: AC/DC, “Dirty Deeds Done Dirt Cheap”

Kelsey
QB Matt Ryan 15
RB Ray Rice 71
RB Ryan Mathews 24
WR Larry Fitzgerald 41
WR Dez Bryant 22
TE Jacob Tamme 2
FLEX Antonio Brown 15
D/ST Packers D/ST 2
K Nate Kaeding 1
BE Mike Tolbert 1
BE Shane Vereen 2
BE Ryan Fitzpatrick 1
BE Jonathan Dwyer 1
BE Coby Fleener 1
BE Ronnie Hillman 1

Team Name: Team Kelsey. Come on Kelsey!

Best Pick: Antonio Brown ($15). Wow! Another example of patience paying off. I think Brown could have easily gone for $30 if he had been nominated earlier in the draft, as he’s looking great in preseason.

Worst Pick: Larry Fitzgerald ($41). Fitz is a tricky player to value as he’s an elite talent, but his team’s QB situation is atrocious. I don’t think he’s worth $41, but I hope he proves me wrong as a healthy, active Fitz is amazing to watch.

Breakout Pick: Ryan Mathews ($24). Mathews is another tricky player to draft. Everyone loves his talent, but he just hasn’t been able to stay on the field consistently.

Draft Grade: A-. If Ryan Mathews, Larry Fitz, and Dez Bryant work out their issues (health, quarterback, and mommy respectively), watch out for Kelsey in the playoffs.

Possible Theme Song: Mike Tolbert Teaches You How to Dougie

Lulu
QB Andy Dalton 3
RB Michael Bush 4
RB Jahvid Best 6
WR Robert Meachem 8
WR Torrey Smith 6
TE Dustin Keller 1
FLEX Mark Ingram 7
D/ST Seahawks D/ST 2
K Matt Bryant 1
BE Robert Griffin III 3
BE Anquan Boldin 3
BE C.J. Spiller 9
BE Donald Brown 9
BE Denarius Moore 9
BE Santonio Holmes 4

Team Name: Is “Home Run!” a joke? Over my head, that one.

Best Pick: Robert Meachem ($8). Even if she overpaid for him, Meachem was Lulu’s first pick…116 picks into the draft.

Worst Pick: All of them. Sorry Lulu.

Breakout Pick: Robert Griffin III ($3). I honestly think he’s going to be absolutely amazing. Not quite Cam Newton, but almost, and for $3!

Overall grade: I(ncomplete)

Possible Theme Songs: It’s a toss-up between Bonnie Tyler, “I Need a Hero” and Sak Noel, “Loca People (What the Fuck)”

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